The Gulf on the Brink

Strategic Vulnerability, Catastrophic Escalation, and the Global Stakes of the Iran War

GEW Consultation Centre

Reports & Analyses : Policy Analysis

(March 2026)

Hichem Karoui

Executive Summary

The attack launched by the United States and Israel on the Islamic Republic of Iran on 28 February 2026 has already brought about the most dangerous strategic crisis in the history of the Gulf. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, supposedly, a decapitation strike to make the regime surrender, has, ironically, strengthened the Iranian determination and provoked a retaliatory attack against the infrastructure of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. According to multiple news reports, Iranian officials stated that the USA has struck a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Gulf. The attack occurred on 8 March 2026, disrupting water supplies to around 30 villages. This attack breaks a new line in the war, representing an existential danger for all the Gulf.

The desalination plants, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and oil refineries highlight a disastrous systemic weakness: The Gulf depends on a few facilities on its coasts to supply the drinking water, energy supply, and economic livelihood. In case the confrontation escalates, especially when Tehran comes to the conclusion that its regime is under existential threat, the consequences will not be confined to the Middle East but pollute the energy markets in Europe, global supply chains, and the world economy. 

This analysis outlines strategic weaknesses, project cost implications, and recommends immediate policy measures that European and Gulf leaders should take to stop further escalation past the point of no return.

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